Real Estate Journal Online

In 2012, nearly 10,000 people in the United States will be turning 65 – the standard retirement age in the United States – every day. By 2030, estimates the Alliance for Aging Research, the last wave of baby boomers will have reached retirement age and there will be around 70 million “older Americans” living in the United States[1]. And the homes that they lived in for the majority of their adult lives will no longer be practical as the boomers age and need more assistance with daily needs.

Enter the senior housing boom and a serious shortage in specialized, senior housing that could create a strain on housing markets that many believe cannot support new construction at this point in time. For example, in Green Bay, Wisconsin, analysts fear that “in a couple of years, we might have a shortage [of senior living options]” as the current population ages. Individuals are remaining longer in their current homes thanks largely to the state of the housing market, but when the move can no longer be delayed, boomers are likely to need to move directly from their former homes to assisted living – without stopping at “independent living” (where residents live basically on their own, but may have access to amenities or services like housecleaning) along the way[2]. Particularly in demand, says Christel Giesen, a team leader at Green Bay’s Aging and Disability Resource Center, will be government-subsidized assisted living. Should the economy remain unstable, a large portion of today’s baby boomers will likely be looking for affordable senior housing when they do decide to make the move to some sort of assisted living.

This pending need looks like a good window of opportunity for developers, but the heavy emphasis on government-subsidized housing could create a problem for would-be builders and investors. Do you think that the senior housing issue will help or hurt the housing market in the long run?

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[1]http://www.rgj.com/article/20070617/NEWS/706150508/Is-Nevada-ready-aging-boom-s-coming-quickly?odyssey=nav|head
[2]http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110527/GPG0101/105270606/Green-Bay-s-boomers-may-fuel-senior-housing-bust